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Title:Effects of overconfidence on decision making
Author(s):Sun, Jiarui
Contributor(s):Varshney, Lav R.
Subject(s):overconfidence
detection theory
combinatorial optimization
Abstract:This thesis aims to explore the effect of overconfidence on people's decision making. To approach this topic, a standard binary detection problem is considered, and its associated individual decision rule and decision fusion rule are derived. Following an axiomatic and empirical approach, a variant of the Prelec function from cumulative prospect theory is then developed to model the effect of overconfidence as a function of level of training. Next, the probability of detection after decision fusion is derived, and a combinatorial optimization is considered which aims to select a subgroup of people/agents to maximize the overall probability of detection.
Issue Date:2019-05
Genre:Other
Type:Text
Language:English
URI:http://hdl.handle.net/2142/104037
Date Available in IDEALS:2019-06-17


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