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Title:Do prices drive commercial trader positions in grains and oilseeds markets?
Author(s):Le, Han Thi Ngoc
Advisor(s):Robe, Michel A
Department / Program:Agr & Consumer Economics
Discipline:Agricultural & Applied Econ
Degree Granting Institution:University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
Subject(s):Hedging behavior
commercial traders positions
optimal hedging model
DCOT data
futures prices
agricultural market
grains and oilseeds markets
OLS regression
Abstract:We examine the impacts of futures price changes on commercial traders’ aggregate net positioning in grains and oilseeds markets during the pre-harvest period from 2007-2019. We proceed in two steps. First, we modify and extend the analysis of optimal hedging proposed by Jacobs, Li, and Hayes (AJAE 2018) to: (i) confirm its applicability for the two largest agricultural markets (soybeans and corn) over a longer period of time than previously tested (13-year period vs. 5); (ii) provide evidence regarding the relevance of the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Volatility Index-VIX in determining commercial hedging decisions; (iii) provide evidence that the Disaggregated Commitment of Traders Reports (DCOT) data can be used as a benchmark for examining hedging behavior. Second, we develop a Structural Vector Auto-Regressive Model (SVAR) to account for endogeneity issues in the analysis of the effects of futures prices and of the VIX on commercial positioning in grains and oilseeds markets. The results from Impulse Response Functions (IRFs) retrieved from the SVAR confirm the role of futures price changes in driving position changes, shedding new light on whether commercial traders hedge or instead speculate.
Issue Date:2020-07-22
Rights Information:Copyright 2020 Han Thi Ngoc Le
Date Available in IDEALS:2020-10-07
Date Deposited:2020-08

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