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Title:How does trade impact agricultural productivity?
Author(s):Pandit, Akshay
Advisor(s):Konar, Megan
Department / Program:Civil & Environmental Eng
Discipline:Civil Engineering
Degree Granting Institution:University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
Trade Openness
Agricultural variables
Abstract:Agricultural production has faced increased demands over the last half century from an expanding economy and population. We live in a globalized world, in which agriculture is deeply intertwined in international markets and trade. In this paper, we address the overarching research question: "What is the impact of trade on agricultural productivity?''. To this end, we present a comprehensive statistical and econometric analysis on the relationship between international trade and agricultural production. We use national-scale data on crop yield, area harvested, production, and trade for the last half century (1961-2016) from the Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations. We introduce novel weighting and decomposition analyses to explore the relationship between trade and crop productivity. To determine the causal impact of trade on agriculture we implement instrumental variable (IV) econometric methods. We find that trade has led to an increase in global agricultural productivity over time (e.g. through increased productivity, the intensive margin). Global productivity gains have accrued primarily through the participation of more countries in global trade (e.g. expanding the area of contribution, the extensive margin). Additionally, we find that trade has enabled global crop consumption to increase. These findings indicate that trade openness leads to greater productivity in agriculture in general. This work highlights that trade can help to achieve productivity gains in agriculture and potentially help the world to address remaining yield gaps.
Issue Date:2020-07-23
Rights Information:Copyright 2020 Akshay Pandit
Date Available in IDEALS:2020-10-07
Date Deposited:2020-08

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