Decision framework for selecting structural strength of new facility on the airbase

Abstract

Since World War I and II, airbases have become the most high-value targets for the enemy during war. This is because in order to block the enemy's air force, it is a more advantageous strategy to prevent the aircraft from taking off from the airbase than to attack the aircraft in the air. Therefore, when the air force's decision-makers build a facility in which major assets are operated, the structural strength of the building is designed to withstand explosions. Air forces in most countries, including NATO and USDOD, provide design criteria to assist in selecting the appropriate structural strength for new buildings through risk assessments based on traditional probability theory. The decision prediction model based on the traditional probability theory assumes that the decision-makers have risk-neutral attitude. However, various studies have found that decision-makers are not always risk-neutral, and it has also been confirmed that decision-makers' attitude toward risk have a significant influence on decision-making outcomes. Therefore, the currently used design criteria need to be improved to reflect the decision-makers’ attitude toward risk. This study proposes how to improve the decision-making framework for determining the structural strength of new airbase buildings by applying the utility theory and cumulative prospect theory to capture and reflect decision-makers' attitude toward risk. In addition, through simulation, it will be shown how much the decision-maker's attitude toward risk affects the decision-making outcome in the newly proposed framework.