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Title:Response Surface Method for Time-Variant Reliability Analysis
Author(s):Yao, T.H-J.; Wen, Y.K.
Subject(s):Structural reliability
Uncertain systems
Time-varying loads
Response surface method
Abstract:An efficient, approximate method for computing the structural reliability of uncertain systems subjected to time-varying loads is presented in this study. The method uses response surface methodology and the fast integration scheme developed by Wen and Chen (1987). The mean and coefficient of variation of the maximum response of the structure are modeled by second order polynomials fitted using central composite designs applied to data from response time histories. The structural failure probability conditional upon the uncertain system parameter values is assumed to fol1o\v an extreme value distribution, the parameters of which are fitted by the response surface n10dels. The fast integration scheme provides a formulation of a limit state function which incorporates this information. The failure probability over a specified time interval can then be evaluated using Monte Carlo simulation. Four numerical examples are solved by the proposed approach, with results compared against approximate solutions by existing methods. An empirical measure is introduced to provide information on the goodness-of-fit of the response surface models. The proposed method is shown to be particularly efficient when used for analyzing the sensitivity of the failure probability to the distribution parameters of the uncertain system parameters.
Issue Date:1993-06
Publisher:University of Illinois Engineering Experiment Station. College of Engineering. University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.
Series/Report:Civil Engineering Studies SRS-580
Genre:Technical Report
Sponsor:National Science Foundation Grants CES 88-22690 and BCS 91-06390
Date Available in IDEALS:2009-11-10

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