Does the business cycle matter for convergence testing? Evidence from U.S. commuting zone level data, 1973-2007

Abstract

This research investigated regional growth patterns under different economic environments. Based on the varying innovation capacities that occur at different stages of the business cycle, I hypothesize that in the more advanced stages of regional development, regional income inequality increases during a normal growth period and decreases during a recession-recovery period. I tested this hypothesis with U.S. per capita income data from 1973 to 2007. This study found evidence supporting the hypothesis: under normal growth periods, regional convergence rate is lower; while during recession-recovery periods, regional convergence rate is higher. This study also found that the overall trend of the convergence rate was decreasing.