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Systematic Treatment of Uncertainty in Consequence-Based Risk Management of Seismic Regional LossesPDF


Title:Systematic Treatment of Uncertainty in Consequence-Based Risk Management of Seismic Regional Losses
Author(s):Chang, Liang; Song, Junho
Consequence-Based Risk Management (CRM)
Systematic Treatment
Regional Loss Estimation
Mid-America Earthquake (MAE) Center
Abstract:The Mid-America Earthquake (MAE) center aims to treat various uncertainties inherent in its Consequence-based Risk Management (CRM) in a systematic manner. In order to achieve this goal, a Task Group on Interdisciplinary Coordination (TGIC) of the MAE center develops a probabilistic framework to estimate the uncertainty in social and economic losses in a region caused by seismic hazard. This document presents the probabilistic framework under develop-ment with a numerical example. The total direct loss of an inventory of three buildings is esti-mated with its uncertainty quantified. We incorporate the uncertainties in the intensity of a sce-nario earthquake, inventory identification, performance of structural/non-structural components, content loss, liquefaction hazard, and damage states. Examples on the use of a probabilistic haz-ard map in regional loss estimation and on the direct loss of a bridge inventory are currently un-der development.
Issue Date:2006-12
Citation Info:Chang, Liang and Junho Song. Systematic Treatment of Uncertainty in Consequence-Based Management of Seismic Regional Losses, Mid-America Earthquake (MAE) Center Report, Urbana, Illinois, December 2006.
Genre:Technical Report
Publication Status:unpublished
Peer Reviewed:not peer reviewed
Date Available in IDEALS:2008-04-11

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