Rapid Risk Assessment and Decision Support for Urban Infrastructure Networks by Matrix-Based System Reliability Method

Abstract

Risk assessment of urban infrastructure networks under natural and man-made hazards is often performed by repeated computational simulations based on random samples of hazard scenarios and corresponding component status. This sampling-based approach may prevent near-real-time application of probabilistic methods to hazard mitigation of infrastructure networks and risk-informed decision support. This paper proposes a non-sampling-based, multi-scale network reliability analysis approach based on the recently proposed matrix-based system reliability method. This approach accounts for the spatial correlation of seismic demands and uses the disjoint cut sets and link sets identified by a state-of-the-art network analysis algorithm. The paper demonstrates the proposed approach through a case study of a Memphis Light, Gas and Water natural gas network to identify the opportunities and challenges in rapid risk assessment and decision support for urban infrastructure networks.