An Investigation of Methods for Probability Evaluation (Reliability)

Abstract

The problem of the practical evaluation of probability is addressed in this study. The recent development of civil engineering applications of the theory of probability has caused a parallel development of suitable numerical techniques. These are available in addition to traditional evaluation methods, as sampling and numerical integration. The efficiency of various approaches in terms of accuracy and of computational time is examined in the study. Different methods are used in the solution of problems, in order to provide a basis for defining their range of applicability. This information, as well as the availability of a computational system integrating various techniques, is a necessary condition for the efficient solution of complex evaluation problems.

An application of the above results is then presented. A probabilistic formulation is developed for an existing model for the cost-benefit analysis of seismic damage prevention. Constant probability level curves for the principal decision variable are calculated. On the basis of these curves, a consistent level of protection can be supplied by design regulations. The amount and the diversity of the probability computations involved require the availability of sufficiently flexible computational tools. The computer software developed in order to perform the above evaluations is described.