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|Title:||Stochastic Dynamic Programming for Optimal Reservoir Control|
|Department / Program:||Civil Engineering|
|Degree Granting Institution:||University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign|
|Abstract:||Sensitivity analyses were performed to examine typical stochastic programming (SP) modeling issues for a hypothetical single reservoir system. The elements considered in these analyses include the partitions of inflow and storage states, the hydrologic characteristics of inflows, the types of system performance functions, and the tradeoffs between conflicting objectives. Simulation studies were conducted to verify the modeling results and to provide insights for possible improvements of the system performance.
It can be shown that the uncertainty associated with the coefficients of variation of the inflows consistently has a greater impact on the system performance than the influence of the serial correlations. In a sample study with flood control being the only objective, the use of either a convex function or a concave function alone for flood damages will not lead to an optimal operation policy which always prevents excessive flood release. The preferences between the conflicting objectives have been shown to affect both the expected system performance and the individual operation decisions. Modification of the discrete optimal solution, using a simple interpolation scheme, may improve the reservoir performance without resorting to a more complex model.
A case study of Lake Shelbyville, Illinois was conducted based on the findings of sensitivity analyses for the hypothetical reservoir system using SP. An ad hoc approach was used to estimate accurately agricultural and property damages in the optimization procedure. The optimal pool levels of Lake Shelbyville in the summer months were found to be roughly 2 to 5 ft lower than the current target level which is 599.7 ft. When the summer pool was forced to reach this target level using a penalty function approach in the SP model, the annual expected damages would increase by 9%. Generally, it would take more than one month for Lake Shelbyville to resume the summer pool from the winter drawdown level. Therefore, a transition period longer than one month between the winter drawdown and the summer recovery of lake levels is recommended for consideration if future modification is made in the rule curve.
Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 1987.
|Date Available in IDEALS:||2014-12-15|
This item appears in the following Collection(s)
Dissertations and Theses - Civil and Environmental Engineering
Graduate Dissertations and Theses at Illinois
Graduate Theses and Dissertations at Illinois