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Title:A Decision Theory Experiment in the Assessment of Financial Distress
Author(s):Chalos, Jean-Pierre
Department / Program:Accountancy
Degree Granting Institution:University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
Subject(s):Business Administration, Accounting
Abstract:This experiment extends individual decision theory accounting research to a multi person setting. Specifically, the loan review performance of bank committees is examined using empirically derived cases pertaining to default and non default firms.
Through a repeated measures design, individual and group performance is compared to that of a statistical model. Parameters include the relative likelihood of financial distress, posterior probabilities of loan default, and optimal expected utility action choice. Information utilization is also examined as well as hypothesized social decision schemes.
Analyses indicate that groups are superior to individuals in both judgmental prediction and statistical performance. While also more accurate in default prediction than a discriminant model, groups are outperformed by a Bayesian model of normative statistical judgment.
Issue Date:1982
Description:114 p.
Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 1982.
Other Identifier(s):(UMI)AAI8302823
Date Available in IDEALS:2014-12-16
Date Deposited:1982

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