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Title:Wins Above Replacement Career Trajectory Curves
Author(s):Jordan, Drew; Bokhari, Ehsan
Contributor(s):Bokhari, Ehsan
Abstract:The purpose of this research is to explore the possibility of being able to model a Major League Baseball (MLB) players Wins Above Replacement (WAR) over the course of his career and use it to predict the success of other players who are similar in the early years of their respective careers. This would be a valuable tool that could be used to more capably predict how certain young players will develop. The reason that we have chosen WAR as our statistic of interest is because it is an all-encompassing statistic that attempts to explain how many wins an individual player contributes to their team over the number of wins a player of replacement level would contribute (a replacement level player being the equivalent of a AAA player that is readily available). In order to approach developing this model, we first have to compute WAR using 80 years of play-by-play data by calculating how many runs a player contributes on a Plate Appearance (PA) by plate appearance basis. Instead of using WAR per season, we have decided to use WAR per 100 At-Bats (AB) in order to have more points in our model and to create a more accurate career WAR trajectory curve. Through this research, we hope to be able to use the model that we create to predict the career trajectory of developing players.
Issue Date:2015-05
Genre:Conference Poster
Rights Information:Copyright 2015 Drew Jordan
Copyright 2015 Ehsan Bokhari
Date Available in IDEALS:2015-05-14

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