The Nature and Dynamics of Political Rhetoric

Abstract

Given that elites use partisan and predictive appeals for fundamentally different purposes, the dynamics surrounding the timing of these appeals also should be radically different. Because elites on both sides of an issue compete for the support of the unaligned, the timing of predictive appeals should be systematically related to features of the competitive political environment, such as opponent strategy, movements in the unaligned, and levels of media attention. Elites do not compete with one another for the support of their leaners. Thus, the only factor that should be related to the timing of partisan appeals is the movement of one side's leaners away from the party. The analyses reveal that the timing of predictive appeals is in fact related to features of the competitive environment, although the impact of opponent strategy and movement in the unaligned differs across the two cases. As expected, the timing of partisan appeals is related to changes in leaner opinion, but little else.