People, Places, and Politics: Voter Turnout in the United States, 1828 to 1992

Abstract

A more complete and refined understanding of turnout rates at the state level requires that political and other contextual factors to be woven into the analysis. In this paper, I use the comprehensive nature of these data and the extensive analysis of specific contextual variables to suggest a model of voter turnout that provides a renewed appreciation for the significance of politics and context in explaining and understanding voter turnout. By rigorously examining the impact of politics and context on turnout I hope to generate important theoretical insights into a more comprehensive understanding of voter turnout, insights that can hopefully be integrated with individual level analyses of political participation. This analysis also will shed light on some fundamental questions in democratic theory by shedding light on elite efforts to manage voters. At a minimum it should suggest the conditions under which such efforts are likely to be successful.