Ex-Ante Welfare Effects From Scale-Neutral Productivity Growth for Semi-Subsistence Orphan Crops: Genetically Modified Cassava in Sub-Sahara Africa

Abstract

The results find that the estimation of production and home consumption elasticities of cassava producers may need to account for producers' self-selections on whether to be a seller and whether to sell at distant markets to correct the estimation bias. Conventional EDM may overestimate total welfare effects for GM cassava in Benin at significantly high probability, may lead to a point estimate of producers' welfare effects substantially different from that of an alternative model, and may slightly underestimate welfare gains for lower-income cassava producers. Policy makers in the least developed countries may be able to make more informed decisions on public investment in cassava by relying on both conventional and the alternative EDMs presented in this dissertation.