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Title:Analysis of Daily Illini College Football Predictions: Accuracy of Forecasters and Betting Line
Author(s):Zhou, Yayu
Contributor(s):Hildebrand, A. J.
Subject(s):probabilities
betting line
college football
prediction
accuracy
Abstract:Each week during college football season, the Daily Illini (DI), the college newspaper at the University of Illinois, publishes predictions by sports columnists on selected college football games for the upcoming weekend. How accurate are these predictions when compared to the betting line (i.e., always predicting the favorite team to win), or to random predictions (i.e., predicting by a coin toss)? Are there significant differences in accuracies between games involving Illinois (or Big Ten teams) and games not involving Illinois? Are there significant differences in accuracies between individual forecasters? To answer these questions, we collected and analyzed Daily Illini college football predictions over the 6 year period 2008--2013. This data set consists of 1740 individual predictions made by 29 forecasters and covering 346 games. Our main conclusions are: (1) The accuracy of DI forecasters during this period was significantly lower than that of the betting line. (2) The accuracy of DI forecasters was significantly higher than that of random predictions. (3) The DI forecasters were significantly more accurate in predicting Illinois (or Big Ten) games than in predicting games not involving Illinois (or Big Ten) teams.
Issue Date:2016
Citation Info:Zhou, Yayu. (2016, April). "Analysis of Daily Illini College Football Predictions: Accuracy of Forecasters and Betting Line." Session presented at Undergraduate Research Symposium, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Illinois.
Genre:Conference Poster
Type:Text
Language:English
URI:http://hdl.handle.net/2142/90257
Rights Information:Copyright 2016 Yaya Zhou
Date Available in IDEALS:2016-06-09


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