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Title:Scheme for stochastic state variable water resources systems optimization
Author(s):Chow, Ven Te; Kim, Dong Hee; Maidment, David R.; Ula, Taylan A.
Contributor(s):University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
Subject(s):Water resources development
Water resources development--Illinois
Water management
Dynamic programming
Hydrologic modeling
Stochastic hydrology
Systems analysis
Water resorces systems
Geographic Coverage:Illinois (state)
Abstract:This report describes the development of an analytical scheme for the formulation and optimization of water resources systems. The scheme being proposed and investigated is to model the stochastic input of annual as well as monthly streamflows to a hydrologic and water resources system, to formulate the system in a state variable format, and to optimize the stochastic state variable model so formulated by dynamic programming. For annual streamflows, a second-order autoregressive model with a data-based transformation is proposed, and both the maximum likelihood method and the Bayesian approach are used for estimating the model parameters. For monthly streamflows, two linear models are proposed, one is the regression model and the other is the functional relationship model, and their consideration of both uncorrelated and correlated errors and their techniques of generation by a stationary Markov process are discussed. The proposed state variable approach provides a generalized framework within which many different kinds of system models may be expressed and combined for the representation of a given hydrologic and water resources system. This simple yet general format is a major advantage of the proposed state variable modeling. While the annual or monthly streamflows are generated as stochastic inputs to the state variable system model by the proposed scheme, a new procedure of optimization of the system by stochastic dynamic programming is developed. Although the research effort should be further extended to the development of practical procedures for application, a few simple examples are given to illustrate the validity of such applications.
Issue Date:1975-10
Publisher:University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. Water Resources Center
Genre:Report (Grant or Annual)
Sponsor:U.S. Geological Survey
U.S. Department of the Interior
Rights Information:Copyright 1975 held by the authors
Date Available in IDEALS:2016-06-27

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