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Title:Development of an alternative approach to transit demand modeling
Author(s):Chistyakov, Ilya Konstantinovich
Advisor(s):Chakraborty, Arnab
Contributor(s):Lee, Bumsoo
Department / Program:Urban & Regional Planning
Discipline:Urban Planning
Degree Granting Institution:University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
Subject(s):Urban planning
Transit demand
Land use
Transportation planning
Travel demand modeling (TDM)
Abstract:Development of the transit systems around the nation faces limitations in funding and strict scrutiny of the proposed projects and their potential impact on urban environment. Potential ridership of the proposed transit route becomes one of the key indicators for analysis of investment projects. Transit demand depends on many multifaceted parameters affecting the mode choice of individual commuters. The urban planning as a field faces the demand in creation of a universal model which would allow to estimate transit demand of the areas of different scales and geographies, be simple to interpret and to replicate in any conditions. The research is discussing the process of development of a model able to predict potential transit demand under provision of a certain level of service based on the socio-economic parameters of the area within walking distance of a transit station. The modeling approach is based on the analysis of real transit ridership of rail stations in Chicago, Los Angeles, and Denver and the parameters possibly contributing to the number of passengers using them. The selection of the variables of the model was based on the most recent research in the field and relied on the multidimensional approach including regional and local scales of socio-economic and transit data. The resulting model included ten independent variables with R2 of 0.59 with multiple statistical tests confirming the assumptions of the model and statistical significance of the results with some limitations in accuracy of predictions. The project included creation of a GIS and online mapping tools for deeper analysis of interconnections between built environment and transit demand. The created Transit Demand Index can be used for the analysis of spatial distribution within metropolitan areas to identify the locations where transit investment would have the most significant outcome. The possible applications of this model include preliminary justification of transit projects, small area plans and corridor studies, long-range transportation plans and implementations in Travel Demand Modeling software.
Issue Date:2017-04-26
Rights Information:Copyright 2017 Ilya Chistyakov
Date Available in IDEALS:2017-08-10
Date Deposited:2017-05

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