2026-09-20T02:41:55Z https://www.ideals.illinois.edu/oai-pmh

oai:www.ideals.illinois.edu:2142/115387 2023-07-11 col_2142_5131 col_2142_14837 com_2142_5130 com_2142_14836 com_2142_234

Singer, Clifford Singer, Clifford Stubbins, James Di Fulvio, Angela Sriver, Ryan 2022-05 application/pdf en text Submission original under an indefinite embargo labeled 'Open Access'. The submission was exported from vireo on 2022-11-11 without embargo terms The student, Chenghao Ding, accepted the attached license on 2022-04-11 at 23:11. The student, Chenghao Ding, submitted this Dissertation for approval on 2022-04-11 at 23:14. This Dissertation was approved for publication on 2022-04-12 at 16:20. DSpace SAF Submission Ingestion Package generated from Vireo submission #17612 on 2022-11-11 at 13:04:56 Global heat balance model and probability distributions for atmospheric response Ding, Chenghao 2022-04-12 Global heat balance model Climate sensitivity Natural transients Probability distribution In this work, time series data for global average temperature and ocean heat content are used to calibrate the global heat balance model parameters including climate sensitivity, ocean thermal inertia, and a regional inhomogeneous radiative forcing multiplier. In this work, separate models are proposed to fit historical natural transients from the El Ni˜no Southern Oscillation (ENSO), volcanic aerosols, and solar variability respectively. Also, a probability distribution of λ, cth, and creg is found by removing the natural transients out from temperature observations. A new carbon balance model is used to account for departures from equilibrium between atmospheric CO2 and other reservoirs for anthropogenic carbon emissions. Assuming averages over natural transient effects having zero mean, extrapolation is done to get a probability distribution for future global average temperature. Thesis eng https://hdl.handle.net/2142/115387 Copyright 2022 Chenghao Ding Ph.D. Dissertation Nuclear, Plasma, Radiolgc Engr University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign Nuclear, Plasma, & Rad Engr