2026-09-24T03:40:18Z https://www.ideals.illinois.edu/oai-pmh

oai:www.ideals.illinois.edu:2142/129229 2025-10-20 col_2142_5131 col_2142_13851 com_2142_5130 com_2142_684 com_2142_397

application/pdf en text Submission original under an indefinite embargo labeled 'Open Access'. The submission was exported from vireo on 2025-10-19 without embargo terms The student, Francesco Franciosi, accepted the attached license on 2025-04-21 at 14:17. The student, Francesco Franciosi, submitted this Thesis for approval on 2025-04-21 at 14:21. This Thesis was approved for publication on 2025-04-21 at 16:22. DSpace SAF Submission Ingestion Package generated from Vireo submission #21863 on 2025-10-19 at 18:09:36 Pre-planting liquidity shocks and farm performance: Evidence from Illinois grain farms Franciosi, Francesco 2025-04-21 Paulson, Nicholas D Janzen, Joe Schnitkey, Gary Donald LIQUIDITY FINANCE FARM PERFORMANCE. eng This thesis investigates how pre-planting liquidity shocks affect farm performance by examining the interaction between unexpected changes in grain futures prices and farms' existing grain inventories. Using unbalanced panel data from Illinois grain farms collected by the Farm Business Farm Management (FBFM) association (2003-2023) and futures price data from Bloomberg, this thesis utilizes a two-way fixed effects model to determine causal relationships between liquidity shocks and farm economic outcomes. The study constructs a novel measure of farm-specific liquidity shocks by combining futures price movements during the critical January March pre-planting period with individual farm grain inventory positions. Results indicate that positive pre-planting liquidity shocks enhance farm financial performance, with the most substantial and statistically significant effect observed for gross margin. The analysis also reveals that higher debt-to-asset ratios and more significant proportions of cash-rented land are consistently associated with lower farm performance across all measures. This research makes three key contributions to agricultural finance literature: it introduces a farm-specific liquidity shock measure that captures the impact of price movements on stored grain inventories; it exploits exogenous variation in futures prices to identify causal effects; and it examines how farm characteristics moderate the relationship between liquidity shocks and performance. 2025-05 Thesis https://hdl.handle.net/2142/129229 Copyright 2025 Francesco Franciosi Agr & Consumer Economics Agricultural & Applied Econ University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign M.S. Thesis