2026-09-21T02:28:00Z https://www.ideals.illinois.edu/oai-pmh

oai:www.ideals.illinois.edu:2142/22274 2023-07-10 col_2142_5131 col_2142_13851 com_2142_5130 com_2142_684 com_2142_397

Restriction data tranferred 2014-07-01T11:26:25-05:00 Original Data Group with Access UIUC Users [automated] Release Date: none Reason: ETDs are only available to UIUC Users without author permission ETDs are only available to UIUC Users without author permission Sonka, Steven T. Mazzocco, Michael Anthony 2011-05-07T13:34:39Z 2011-05-07T13:34:39Z 10000-01-01 1989 Climate effects on corn and soybean production on two representative midwestern grain farms are incorporated into production function estimates by using physiologic crop growth simulation models over fourteen years of weather data and different combinations of management decisions. Model producers are assumed to maximize a net return function. Using dynamic programming, the value of the net return functions and the associated optimal crop decisions are identified for different prior climate expectations and different designs of climate forecasts. Climate forecasts are shown to have more value in east central Illinois than in central Iowa. Much of this value relates to adjusting the amount and timing of nitrogen application for corn production. Climate forecasts are shown to have value in crop selection when the price relationship between corn and soybeans is in a competitive range. Forecasts with more discrete outcome categories have more value than those with fewer categories, although slight decreases in the accuracy of the less detailed forecasts do not detract from their value. Management decisions included in the soybean production functions do not exhibit sufficient flexibility or responsiveness to climate for soybean climate forecasts to have value. Ambiguity theory is used as an alternative to risk theory to develop different assumptions on the decision maker's prior information. The different assumptions on prior information are shown to strongly impact the value of information. Made available in DSpace on 2011-05-07T13:34:39Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 license.txt: 4922 bytes, checksum: 910b249b4beec47e7ab768910c8f966f (MD5) 8916281.pdf: 6906797 bytes, checksum: b5f5c82cd10842f993c91ee3801990c5 (MD5) Previous issue date: 1989 Item marked as restricted to the 'UIUC Users [automated]' Group (id=2) by Howard Ding (hding2@illinois.edu) on 2011-05-07T14:56:30Z Item is restricted indefinitely. U of I Only AAI8916281 (UMI)AAI8916281 http://hdl.handle.net/2142/22274 eng Copyright 1989 Mazzocco, Michael Anthony Economics, Agricultural Valuing climate forecasts for midwestern grain producers text Agricultural and Consumer Economics Agricultural and Consumer Economics University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign Dissertation Ph.D.