Development of an alternative approach to transit demand modeling

Chistyakov, Ilya Konstantinovich

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https://hdl.handle.net/2142/97464 Copy

Description

Title

Development of an alternative approach to transit demand modeling

Author(s)

Chistyakov, Ilya Konstantinovich

Issue Date

2017-04-26

Director of Research (if dissertation) or Advisor (if thesis)

Chakraborty, Arnab

Committee Member(s)

Lee, Bumsoo

Department of Study

Urban & Regional Planning

Discipline

Urban Planning

Degree Granting Institution

University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

Degree Name

M.U.P.

Degree Level

Thesis

Keyword(s)

• Urban planning
• Transit demand
• Land use
• Transportation planning
• Travel demand modeling (TDM)

Abstract

Development of the transit systems around the nation faces limitations in funding and strict scrutiny of the proposed projects and their potential impact on urban environment. Potential ridership of the proposed transit route becomes one of the key indicators for analysis of investment projects. Transit demand depends on many multifaceted parameters affecting the mode choice of individual commuters. The urban planning as a field faces the demand in creation of a universal model which would allow to estimate transit demand of the areas of different scales and geographies, be simple to interpret and to replicate in any conditions. The research is discussing the process of development of a model able to predict potential transit demand under provision of a certain level of service based on the socio-economic parameters of the area within walking distance of a transit station. The modeling approach is based on the analysis of real transit ridership of rail stations in Chicago, Los Angeles, and Denver and the parameters possibly contributing to the number of passengers using them. The selection of the variables of the model was based on the most recent research in the field and relied on the multidimensional approach including regional and local scales of socio-economic and transit data. The resulting model included ten independent variables with R2 of 0.59 with multiple statistical tests confirming the assumptions of the model and statistical significance of the results with some limitations in accuracy of predictions. The project included creation of a GIS and online mapping tools for deeper analysis of interconnections between built environment and transit demand. The created Transit Demand Index can be used for the analysis of spatial distribution within metropolitan areas to identify the locations where transit investment would have the most significant outcome. The possible applications of this model include preliminary justification of transit projects, small area plans and corridor studies, long-range transportation plans and implementations in Travel Demand Modeling software.

Graduation Semester

2017-05

Type of Resource

text

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http://hdl.handle.net/2142/97464

Copyright and License Information

Copyright 2017 Ilya Chistyakov

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