Rationality or irrationality of preferences? A quantitative test of intransitive decision heuristics
Guo, Ying
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https://hdl.handle.net/2142/101046
Description
Title
Rationality or irrationality of preferences? A quantitative test of intransitive decision heuristics
Author(s)
Guo, Ying
Issue Date
2018-04-23
Director of Research (if dissertation) or Advisor (if thesis)
Regenwetter, Michel
Committee Member(s)
Köhn, Hans-Friedrich
Department of Study
Psychology
Discipline
Psychology
Degree Granting Institution
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
Degree Name
M.S.
Degree Level
Thesis
Keyword(s)
Transitivity of preference, Probabilistic model, Order-Constrained inference, lexicographic semiorder, similarity model, linear order
Abstract
In this paper, I present a comprehensive analysis of two decision heuristics that permit intransitive preferences: the lexicographic semiorder model and the similarity model. I also compare these two intransitive decision heuristics with transitive linear order models and two simple transitive heuristics. For each decision theory, I use two types of probabilistic specifications: distance-based models (which assume deterministic preferences and probabilistic response processes), and mixture models (which assume probabilistic preferences and deterministic response processes). I test 26 such probabilistic models on datasets from three different experiments using both frequentist and Bayesian order-constrained statistical methods. The frequentist goodness-of-fit tests show that the distance-based models with modal choice and the mixture models for all of the decision heuristics explain the participants' data fairly well for all stimulus sets. The frequentist analysis generates little evidence against transitivity. Model selection using Bayes factors suggests extensive heterogeneity across participants and stimulus sets.
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