Aspirations, drought, and the perception of weather: How are future goals affected by severe rainfall shocks?

Kurczewski, Adam Joseph

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https://hdl.handle.net/2142/108523 Copy

Description

Title

Aspirations, drought, and the perception of weather: How are future goals affected by severe rainfall shocks?

Author(s)

Kurczewski, Adam Joseph

Issue Date

2020-07-22

Director of Research (if dissertation) or Advisor (if thesis)

Baylis, Kathy

Department of Study

Agr & Consumer Economics

Discipline

Agricultural & Applied Econ

Degree Granting Institution

University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

Degree Name

M.S.

Degree Level

Thesis

Keyword(s)

• aspirations
• perceptions
• drought

Abstract

Individuals’ aspirations are receiving more attention in development economics as their role in decision making, future expectations, and well-being are recognized. High aspirational targets set by ambitious individuals may contribute to economic improvements, while low aspirations targets may sustain conditions of poverty in a negative feedback loop. Despite the connections to productive behavior, factors that may contribute to or work against the formation of aspirations have seldom been identified outside of the experimental setting. Particularly, we seek to understand how droughts impact individual aspirations. This report also makes the important distinction between perceived, actual, and expected drought shocks, and identifies the various influences on goal-setting. Using data on 748 Zambian households, we show that perceived drought length increased aspirations. Perceiving an additional day of drought was associated with an increase of 0.232 and 0.212 standard deviations for livestock and asset aspirations, respectively. When using Climate Hazards Group InfaRed Precipitations with Station (CHIRPS) data, we see no effect on aspirations, suggesting that past perceptions – rather than the shocks themselves, which dictate household ambitions. Finally, when using the individual’s expectations of future drought exposure, aspirations are reduced. Households that expect more frequent droughts in the next decade reduced a partial aggregate of aspirations by 0.295 standard deviations. The different effects observed depend on the subjective or objective nature of our shocks, and the orientation towards the past or the future, highlighting the complexity of identifying factors that contribute to the formation or destruction of aspirations.

Graduation Semester

2020-08

Type of Resource

Thesis

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http://hdl.handle.net/2142/108523

Copyright and License Information

Copyright 2020 Adam Kurczewski

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