University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign

Evaluating the potential for plant-based meat to capture the U.S. meat market

Cornelius, Margaret M

Content Files
CORNELIUS-THESIS-2021.pdf

Permalink

https://hdl.handle.net/2142/113191

Description

Title
Evaluating the potential for plant-based meat to capture the U.S. meat market
Author(s)
Cornelius, Margaret M
Issue Date
2021-07-15
Director of Research (if dissertation) or Advisor (if thesis)
Schnitkey, Gary D
Committee Member(s)
  • Ellison, Brenna
  • Goldsmith, Peter
Department of Study
Agr & Consumer Economics
Discipline
Agricultural & Applied Econ
Degree Granting Institution
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
Degree Name
M.S.
Degree Level
Thesis
Date of Ingest
2022-01-12T22:35:14Z
Keyword(s)
meatless meat plant-based meat lab-grown meat consumer acceptability economic feasibility ground beef beef market
Abstract
This thesis describes factors influencing the meatless meat industry’s potential to expand, and it estimates the U.S. beef market’s response to competition from plant-based meat products. The first part of the analysis provides an overview of the meatless meat industry and outlines factors that influence the new industry’s potential to capture market from the U.S. livestock industry. These factors include consumer sensory acceptance of and willingness to pay for meatless meat products, technical feasibility of producing the products at scale, the economic feasibility of pricing them competitively with meat, and how the U.S. livestock market and U.S. agriculture lobbyists will respond to the new competition. Next, the analysis provides an empirical analysis of one of these factors – the U.S. livestock market’s response to competition from plant-based meat, using an examination of how competition between plant-based meat and ground beef would affect the entire beef market. The analysis estimates price changes for ground beef, fed steer, and choice and select beef markets using price elasticities and historic beef price data from 2013-2019. Joint-product theory and an OLS regression of historic beef prices indicate that these beef markets are linked, so plant-based meat’s competition with ground beef will affect supply and prices in the fed steer and choice/select markets. Beef price estimates are calculated for different scenarios in which plant-based meat captures 5% to 25% of the ground beef market. It is estimated that ground beef prices will drop 2.10% to 4.00% if plant-based meat takes 5% of its market, and its price elasticity of supply and demand would be -1.25 in the new market equilibrium.
Graduation Semester
2021-08
Type of Resource
Thesis
Permalink
http://hdl.handle.net/2142/113191
Copyright and License Information
Copyright 2021 Margaret Cornelius

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Graduate Dissertations and Theses at Illinois PRIMARY
Graduate Theses and Dissertations at Illinois
Dissertations - Agricultural and Consumer Economics