Analysis of the Effects of Large-Scale Disasters on the Behavior of Non-State ViolentActors in Countries Already Under Duress

Hyams, Dylan

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https://hdl.handle.net/2142/113636 Copy

Description

Title

Analysis of the Effects of Large-Scale Disasters on the Behavior of Non-State ViolentActors in Countries Already Under Duress

Author(s)

Hyams, Dylan

Issue Date

2021

Keyword(s)

• Large-Scale Disasters
• Non-State Violent Actors
• Ripe Moment Theory

Abstract

Over the course of human civilization, humanity has been exposed to major disruptions of normalcy due to the onset of naturally occurring large-scale disasters. In the midst of disaster, some societies have also dealt with intrastate conflicts that strain the already depleted resources necessary for the survival and support of established institutions and governance. At the forefront of my research is the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic which established itself in the fourth quarter of 2019 and has since then taken hundreds of thousands of lives and deteriorated several economies around the world. For this paper, I will be analyzing the effects that disasters have with respect to the behavior of non-state violent actors (NSVAs) and subsequent influence on conflict continuation, escalation, and de-escalation, as well as the NSVAs ability to legitimize themselves in the view of the state and international community. I will be drawing on existing literature, including the Ripe Moment Theory presented by Joakim Kreutz, to help explain behavior and conflict before, during, and after a disaster; will be utilizing the ACLED ConflictDatabase to track conflict intensity both before and during the pandemic; and will be providing case studies from multiple regions around the world to provide different contexts for distinctNSVAs. At the end of this paper, I come to the conclusion that the behavior of the NSVA and conflict continuation, escalation, and/or de-escalation, in the midst of a disaster, is both moderately dependent of the condition of the regime type, as well as the overall ambitions of the actors in question, whether that be political motivations or motivations of other interests.Additionally, I argue that states and NSVAs must come to a mutual agreement in the establishment of relief services, and that states should attempt to negotiate with the NSVA in the facilitation of the appropriate resources and guidance.

Publisher

Program in Arms Control & Domestic and International Security

Type of Resource

text

Language

en

Permalink

http://hdl.handle.net/2142/113636

Copyright and License Information

Copyright 2021 Dylan Hyams

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