Global heat balance model and probability distributions for atmospheric response
Ding, Chenghao
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https://hdl.handle.net/2142/115387
Description
Title
Global heat balance model and probability distributions for atmospheric response
Author(s)
Ding, Chenghao
Issue Date
2022-04-12
Director of Research (if dissertation) or Advisor (if thesis)
Singer, Clifford
Doctoral Committee Chair(s)
Singer, Clifford
Committee Member(s)
Stubbins, James
Di Fulvio, Angela
Sriver, Ryan
Department of Study
Nuclear, Plasma, & Rad Engr
Discipline
Nuclear, Plasma, Radiolgc Engr
Degree Granting Institution
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
Degree Name
Ph.D.
Degree Level
Dissertation
Keyword(s)
Global heat balance model
Climate sensitivity
Natural transients
Probability distribution
Language
eng
Abstract
In this work, time series data for global average temperature and ocean heat content are used to calibrate the global heat balance model parameters including climate sensitivity, ocean thermal inertia, and a regional inhomogeneous radiative forcing multiplier.
In this work, separate models are proposed to fit historical natural transients from the El Ni˜no Southern Oscillation (ENSO), volcanic aerosols, and solar variability respectively. Also, a probability distribution of λ, cth, and creg is found by removing the natural transients out from temperature observations. A new carbon balance model is used to account for departures from equilibrium between atmospheric CO2 and other reservoirs for anthropogenic carbon emissions. Assuming averages over natural transient effects having zero mean, extrapolation is done to get a probability distribution for future global average temperature.
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