Essays on heterogeneity in outdoor recreation demand and climate change’s impact on agriculture
Cai, Chang
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https://hdl.handle.net/2142/116052
Description
Title
Essays on heterogeneity in outdoor recreation demand and climate change’s impact on agriculture
Author(s)
Cai, Chang
Issue Date
2022-07-12
Director of Research (if dissertation) or Advisor (if thesis)
Gramig, Benjamin
Doctoral Committee Chair(s)
Gramig, Benjamin
Committee Member(s)
Ando, Amy
Christensen, Peter
van Riper, Carena
Department of Study
Agr & Consumer Economics
Discipline
Agricultural & Applied Econ
Degree Granting Institution
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
Degree Name
Ph.D.
Degree Level
Dissertation
Keyword(s)
spatial heterogeneity
outdoor recreation
nature-based tourism
national park
visitor use management
wildfire
location-based data
temporal disaggregation
climate change
agriculture
Abstract
This dissertation presents three chapters related to problems in natural resource management, namely, recreation demand, park management, and climate change impacts on the agriculture sector. The first essay quantifies the response of tourists to increasing wildfire activities in 32 national parks across the western United States. Results from a large-scale analysis show that wildfires will on average reduce annual visitation by about 1.35% each year, which is about a half of the estimates suggested by previous literature. In addition, I find the majority of the visitation losses caused by wildfires are attributed to emergency fire closures, and national park visitors, comprised of both day users and campers, who are surprisingly resilient to smoky conditions. The second essay investigates the possibility of applying Temporal Disaggregation to SafeGraph’s daily foot traffic data to downscale the monthly visitation to 31 western national parks to the daily scale. Using a grid search design to achieve the best model performance, my results confirm the applicability of SafeGraph data to downscale monthly visitation for the majority of the parks in my sample. Overall, the approach proposed in this study provides an opportunity for park managers to reconstruct daily visitor use data and be better equipped for adaptive management in national parks. The third essay examines how the choice of grouping can affect expected future agricultural profits when one wants to quantify the heterogeneous impacts of climate change on agriculture. The results indicate that accounting for grouping uncertainty greatly increases the confidence interval around projected climate impacts. In addition, I do not find that one type of grouping is superior to any other. I suggest two potential solutions and emphasize the importance of explicitly controlling for grouping uncertainty in future studies.
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