Influence of climate uncertainties on western U.S fire risk projections

Samantula, Charumeghana

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https://hdl.handle.net/2142/120178 Copy

Description

Title

Influence of climate uncertainties on western U.S fire risk projections

Author(s)

Samantula, Charumeghana

Issue Date

2023-05-05

Director of Research (if dissertation) or Advisor (if thesis)

• Sriver, Ryan L
• Zhao, Lei

Department of Study

Civil & Environmental Eng

Discipline

Civil Engineering

Degree Granting Institution

University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

Degree Name

M.S.

Degree Level

Thesis

Keyword(s)

• Fire risk
• Climate data
• Downscaled climate models, Wildfire risk
• Fire weather index

Abstract

This study explores the impact of climate change on fire risk in the Western United States, with a focus on two regions in California - Southern and Northern California. In recent years, the region has experienced a significant increase in the frequency and severity of wildfires, with climate change being a primary driver of this trend. The study analyzes daily climate parameters and their effects on the Fire Weather Index (FWI) time series using two different downscaled model ensembles: MACA-CMIP5 and NEX-GDDP-CMIP6. We also capture the skill of model ensembles in capturing the observed trends in fire risk and project the fire risk for various future scenarios using FWI as the metric. Three metrics - Pearson's correlation coefficient, random forest feature importance, and linear regression coefficient - are used to explore the relationship between climate parameters and FWI values, and to gain insights into the relative importance of different climate parameters in predicting wildfire risk and their potential spatial and temporal variations. Existing literature has identified several key climate drivers of wildfire risk in the Western US, including warming temperatures, decreasing relative humidity, and changes in precipitation patterns. However, the exact nature and extent of these relationships, and how they may vary across different spatial regions and time periods, are still being investigated. By understanding these factors and developing strategies to address them, it may be possible to mitigate the impacts of climate change on fire risk and reduce the frequency and severity of wildfires in the western US.

Graduation Semester

2023-05

Type of Resource

Thesis

Copyright and License Information

Copyright 2023 Charumeghana Samantula

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