Effects of increasing climate variability on human health: A case study of West Nile Virus mosquitoes in central Illinois

Borse, Pranjali Anil

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https://hdl.handle.net/2142/120457 Copy

Description

Title

Effects of increasing climate variability on human health: A case study of West Nile Virus mosquitoes in central Illinois

Author(s)

Borse, Pranjali Anil

Issue Date

2023-05-04

Director of Research (if dissertation) or Advisor (if thesis)

• Zhao, Lei
• Hence, Deanna

Department of Study

Civil & Environmental Eng

Discipline

Civil Engineering

Degree Granting Institution

University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

Degree Name

M.S.

Degree Level

Thesis

Keyword(s)

West Nile Virus, Climate, Public health, Stormwater infrastructure

Abstract

Climate change poses not only direct impact on human health due to frequent events like heat waves, flooding, droughts, etc., but also has surprising indirect effects, such as the strong influence of climatic variability on mosquito-borne disease transmission. West Nile Virus (WNV) is one such prevalent mosquito borne disease in United States. Various studies have reported different effects of climate on the vectors of WNV to humans, Culex spp. mosquitoes; the differences in findings are often due to environmental differences between locations. The effect of temperature is well documented, and findings reported by various studies are in consensus. Precipitation parameters, however, have more complex effects on mosquito ecology. Thus, my area of interest was the combined effects of temperature and precipitation on mosquito ecology and disease transmission in the Central Illinois region. My findings indicate that the WNV infection rate in mosquitoes was associated with hot and low moisture conditions, whereas the Culex spp. larval abundance was associated with high temperatures over both longer and shorter timeframes. Accumulated rainfall over long periods showed strong positive effects on larval abundance, but high intensity rainfall was associated with low larval abundance in short timeframes. Temperature and precipitation were both strong predictors of larval abundance in summer of 2003, which was the wettest and hottest period over the study period. Classification tree analysis was used to find ranges of temperature and precipitation thresholds that classify larval abundance into Low, Medium or High abundance categories. Geospatial analysis of rainfall accumulation was used to determine the meteorological processes associated with the rainfall to investigate their impact upon larval populations. These findings could be crucial for policymakers to understand the effects of current and future climate on the risk of mosquito borne disease.

Graduation Semester

2023-05

Type of Resource

Thesis

Handle URL

https://hdl.handle.net/2142/120457

Copyright and License Information

Copyright 2023 Pranjali Borse

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