Rainfall shocks and agro-dealer maize seed sales: Farmer adaptation to weather risk

Willwerth, Hanna

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https://hdl.handle.net/2142/121347 Copy

Description

Title

Rainfall shocks and agro-dealer maize seed sales: Farmer adaptation to weather risk

Author(s)

Willwerth, Hanna

Issue Date

2023-07-19

Director of Research (if dissertation) or Advisor (if thesis)

• Arends-Kuenning, Mary
• Michelson, Hope C

Committee Member(s)

Janzen, Sarah

Department of Study

Agr & Consumer Economics

Discipline

Agricultural & Applied Econ

Degree Granting Institution

University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

Degree Name

M.S.

Degree Level

Thesis

Keyword(s)

• Maize
• Kenya
• Maturity
• Adaptation
• Climate Change
• Smallholder
• Agriculture
• Poverty
• Resilience

Abstract

Extreme weather events can constrain or induce adaptation, subject to financial constraints and risk preferences and perceptions. The paper explores how farmers adapt their seed choices to weather shocks and climate variability within and across seasons. I estimate the effects of droughts, floods, and late onset of the rains on early-, intermediate-, and late-maturing maize varieties. I use monthly transaction data from July 2020 to December 2022 and 1,144 Kenyan agro-dealers. I exploit temporal and spatial variation in rainfall to estimate the impact of weather shocks on agro-dealer maize seed sales, using a two-way fixed effects model to control for unobserved characteristics. Overall, I observe that rainfall shocks and rain onset variability do affect agro-dealer total maize seed sales and demand for specific maturity types. I find evidence that farmers engage in within season adaption through increased purchases of early maturing varieties. I find no evidence of across season adaption to rainfall shocks. For shops that experience annual rains, I find that flooding decreases the total quantity of maize seed sold and that this is driven by decreased demand for intermediate and late maturing varieties. This suggests that across seasons, flooding and droughts lead to income shocks that constrain investment and adaptive behavior. Overall, I find demand for intermediate maturing varieties is generally negatively associated with rainfall shocks for annual shops. This suggests that farmers may not perceive intermediate maturity types as being well adapted to climate risk, either due to poor varietal performance or misunderstood varietal maturity type.

Graduation Semester

2023-08

Type of Resource

Thesis

Handle URL

https://hdl.handle.net/2142/121347

Copyright and License Information

Copyright 2023 Hanna Willwerth

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