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Projected Precipitation Frequency for Illinois
Markus, Momcilo; Wu, Shu
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https://hdl.handle.net/2142/125352
Description
- Title
- Projected Precipitation Frequency for Illinois
- Author(s)
- Markus, Momcilo
- Wu, Shu
- Issue Date
- 2025-01
- Keyword(s)
- Climate change
- Projected precipitation
- Nonstationary data
- Extreme precipitation
- Data Modeling
- Rainfall
- Extreme weather
- Geographic Coverage
- Illinois
- Abstract
- This study used high-quality climate modeling data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), downscaled to a resolution suitable for statistical analysis combined with a cutting-edge statistical frequency calculation method to project precipitation frequencies for the years 2050, 2075, and 2100. This project built on the existing Bulletin 75, which represents the year 2017 (Angel et al. 2020). The projected precipitation frequencies were estimated based on the increasing rate of model-based precipitation frequency estimates and Bulletin 75. To estimate future precipitation frequency, the rates of increase from the adopted climate models relative to 2017 were applied to the values published in Bulletin 75. Appendix A presents these rates, referred to as ratios to signify the ratio method used in many similar studies (Pierce et al. 2023). The ratios are displayed for the same storm durations, recurrence intervals and 10 climatic sections outlined in Bulletin 75. After evaluating the performance of two statistical methods—nonstationary (NS) and quasi- stationary (QS)—using the downscaled data sets, namely, Statistical Localized Constructed Analogues version 2 (LOCA2) data set (Pierce et al. 2014; Pierce et al. 2023), and the University of Wisconsin-Madison Probabilistic Downscaling version 2 (UWPD2) data (Lorenz 2015; Notaro et al. 2011; HDSC 2022), the NS method with the LOCA2 data set was selected for this study. Appendix B shows a comparison between these methods for both data sets. The final projected results are presented for the “middle-of-the-road” scenario (SSP2-4.5), while the lower (SSP1-2.6) and higher (SSP3-7.0) emissions pathways were discussed in the appendices. Results are presented in the same format as Bulletin 75, including graphs and tables, for the time horizons of 2050, 2075, and 2100. Projections for the horizons beyond 2100 will be possible when climate data with sufficient spatial and temporal resolution become available. Appendix C presents a comparison between scenario- based variability and climate model-based variability, revealing that model outputs exhibit greater uncertainty compared to those derived from climate scenarios. Appendix D addresses uncertainty considerations, presenting the lower and upper confidence limits for estimated precipitation frequencies.
- Publisher
- Illinois State Water Survey
- Series/Report Name or Number
- ISWS Bulletin 76
- Type of Resource
- text
- Language
- eng
- Sponsor(s)/Grant Number(s)
- Illinois Department of Natural Resources
Owning Collections
Bulletin - Illinois State Water Survey PRIMARY
Research studies published from 1897 - CurrentManage Files
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