The effects of shocks and cash transfers on decision-making in developing countries

Stocker, Abigail

Permalink

https://hdl.handle.net/2142/129185 Copy

Description

Title

The effects of shocks and cash transfers on decision-making in developing countries

Author(s)

Stocker, Abigail

Issue Date

2025-04-04

Director of Research (if dissertation) or Advisor (if thesis)

Akresh, Richard

Doctoral Committee Chair(s)

Akresh, Richard

Committee Member(s)

• Osman, Adam
• Forsythe, Eliza
• Bartik, Alexander

Department of Study

Economics

Discipline

Economics

Degree Granting Institution

University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign

Degree Name

Ph.D.

Degree Level

Dissertation

Keyword(s)

• Gender
• Child Marriage
• Marriage Transfers
• Cash Transfers
• Preschool
• Education
• Income
• Asia
• Development
• Climate Change
• Transportation
• Ridehailing
• Experiment

Abstract

This dissertation contains three essays in development economics, which study how decisions made by individuals or households regarding child marriage, education, and transportation respond to economic shocks and policy changes. Chapter 1 examines how child marriage rates for both boys and girls respond to exogenous shocks to rainfall, temperatures, and conflict. I develop a theoretical household bargaining model, which predicts that negative shocks to income or to child marriage preferences reduce child marriage rates. Using individual-level data from India, Indonesia, and Nepal, I empirically estimate the effects of shocks on child marriage. Low rainfall and high temperatures, which reduce income, decrease the annual probability of child marriage for boys and girls by 1-8%. Exposure to conflict, which increases the risk of experiencing conflict-related violence, decreases child marriage for boys and increases it for girls by up to 30% and 3%, respectively. Effects are similar regardless of the child’s age, spousal age gap, or direction of the marriage transfer. These findings suggest a perverse relationship between income and child marriage, which is relevant for policymakers seeking to simultaneously reduce child marriage and poverty. Chapter 2 studies the effects of a maternity benefits program for women in the informal sector in India. Globally, many women in the informal sector are not eligible for traditional maternity benefits programs, and this could affect the health and later-life outcomes of their children. This paper investigates the impact of IGMSY, a unique maternity benefits program in India, on children’s education later in life. The program was launched in 2011, piloted in 52 out of India’s 640 districts, and provided cash transfers to women for their first and second live births regardless of employment status. Using a difference-in-differences approach across districts and cohorts, I find that the program increased school enrollment by 9 percentage points for the youngest cohorts (preschool-age children) but did not increase enrollment, reading, or math competency for older cohorts. The effects on enrollment are strongest for children from poorer households. This intervention likely had impacts on enrollment both through improving health-related outcomes and increasing income. Chapter 3 examine how transportation decisions are affected by weather and transportation costs. The future of travel will be characterized by changes in weather patterns and changes in transportation technology. How will these forces interact? This paper explores this question by utilizing a unique randomized experiment with Uber riders in Cairo, Egypt. We consider how very hot days (>35°C/95°F) affect transportation choices, how a sizeable price decrease (simulating a future with autonomous vehicles and access to cheaper transportation) changes travel, and how the interaction of these two elements affect choices. We find that while travel will increase significantly in response to the price decrease, extreme weather dampens this effect by 21%. Individuals receiving subsidies also shift away from public transportation modes and towards private transportation modes, except when the public transit option is air conditioned. These results provide important insights for policymakers when considering optimal travel policy in the face of climate change. Overall, these essays shed light on how economic shocks and policy decisions influence household behavior and long-term outcomes, offering crucial guidance for policymakers aiming to improve the well-being of vulnerable populations.

Graduation Semester

2025-05

Type of Resource

Thesis

Handle URL

https://hdl.handle.net/2142/129185

Copyright and License Information

Copyright 2025 Abigail Stocker

Owning Collections