Tornado track deviation: a possible approach to statistical warnings
Skocinski, Jessica Olivia
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https://hdl.handle.net/2142/129975
Description
Title
Tornado track deviation: a possible approach to statistical warnings
Author(s)
Skocinski, Jessica Olivia
Issue Date
2025-07-25
Director of Research (if dissertation) or Advisor (if thesis)
Jewett, Brian
Department of Study
Climate Meteorology & Atm Sci
Discipline
Atmospheric Sciences
Degree Granting Institution
University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign
Degree Name
M.S.
Degree Level
Thesis
Keyword(s)
tornado
severe weather
meteorology
Abstract
Current warning strategies for tornadoes have significant spatial inefficiencies owing to uncertainty in tornado movement. Quantifying the historical deviation of tornado tracks in a given storm environment may allow for multiple warning probabilities and could decrease false alarm ratios while increasing effective lead time in warnings. Prior literature on this topic has been limited to small sample sizes investigating singular tornadoes or tornado outbreaks. Tornado tracks obtained from the Tornado Archive are correlated with storm mode and meteorological model data and plotted in a novel method allowing for statistical comparisons of tracks. Results quantify that tornadoes in environments with low storm-relative helicity move more erratically and therefore less predictably than tornadoes in environments with high storm-relative helicity.
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