Meteorological drivers of the low cloud radiative feedback pattern effect and its uncertainty
Tam, Rachel Yuen Sum
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https://hdl.handle.net/2142/130039
Description
Title
Meteorological drivers of the low cloud radiative feedback pattern effect and its uncertainty
Author(s)
Tam, Rachel Yuen Sum
Issue Date
2025-07-14
Director of Research (if dissertation) or Advisor (if thesis)
Proistosescu, Cristian
Department of Study
Climate Meteorology & Atm Sci
Discipline
Atmospheric Sciences
Degree Granting Institution
University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign
Degree Name
M.S.
Degree Level
Thesis
Keyword(s)
Climate
Low-cloud radiative feedback
Pattern Effect
Abstract
The radiative feedback pattern effect remains a large source of uncertainty for both projections of future trends and interpretations of past trends in global temperature. The pattern effect is defined as the difference in feedbacks between transient and long-term simulations, and past work shows that is primarily attributed to changes in the marine low-cloud radiative feedback. In this thesis, we use low cloud meteorological kernels to map out both the primary cloud controlling factors through which changing surface temperature patterns drive changes in low cloud feedback, as well as the sources of model spread. We find that the pattern effect is almost entirely driven by changes in EIS in the Southern Hemisphere, particularly in the South East Pacific and Southern Ocean. In both past and future simulations, inter-model spread is primarily caused by model differences in the sensitivity of low clouds to the environmental conditions, rather than differences in the simulated evolution of environmental conditions.
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