Examining the impacts of agricultural production: Civil conflict and economic dynamics in the context of plantation crops

Yamasaki, Yoko

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https://hdl.handle.net/2142/130137 Copy

Description

Title

Examining the impacts of agricultural production: Civil conflict and economic dynamics in the context of plantation crops

Author(s)

Yamasaki, Yoko

Issue Date

2025-07-07

Director of Research (if dissertation) or Advisor (if thesis)

Michelson, Hope

Doctoral Committee Chair(s)

• Crost, Benjamin
• Janzen, Sarah

Committee Member(s)

Kleemans, Marieke

Department of Study

Agr & Consumer Economics

Discipline

Agricultural & Applied Econ

Degree Granting Institution

University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign

Degree Name

Ph.D.

Degree Level

Dissertation

Keyword(s)

• Civil Conflict
• Agricultural Commodities
• Plantation Expansion
• Land Use Change
• Labor-Intensity
• Market Structure
• Rural Livelihoods, Palm Oil

Abstract

This dissertation investigates how agricultural production activities, particularly plantation crop expansion, shape socio-economic outcomes and conflict dynamics. Drawing on high-resolution spatial data, panel household surveys, and conflict records, I examine Indonesia and the Philippines to explore how the characteristics and consequences of agricultural growth influence rural development and stability. Each chapter contributes empirical evidence and policy-relevant insights by using variation in commodity types, farmland expansion, and market structures. Chapter 1 assesses the causal impact of plantation area expansion on civil conflict in Indonesia, focusing on the rapid growth of oil palm cultivation. Using satellite imagery and sub-district-level conflict data from 1997–2014, I employ fixed effects and instrumental variable strategies based on agro-climate suitability for production and distance from ports to isolate the effects of plantation expansion. The results indicate that a 1 percentage point increase in plantation crop area leads to a 1.6–2.2% increase in conflict incidents, with effects persisting for up to six years. In contrast, increases in world market prices for palm oil reduce conflict, suggesting distinct mechanisms: land expansion intensifies disputes over land access and rights, while price increases enhance economic opportunity. These findings underscore the importance of considering resource governance in agricultural development policy. Chapter 2 extends this inquiry by systematically examining how the characteristics of agricultural commodities affect conflict outcomes. Analyzing the price movements of 26 commodities in the Philippines, I show that increases in the value of labor-intensive crops tend to reduce conflict, while those with concentrated market structures are associated with conflict increase. These effects are consistent with previous literature. The analysis provides a framework for evaluating trade-offs between economic development and conflict sensitivity based on the structure of agricultural production. Chapter 3 turns to the household level to evaluate how palm oil plantation expansion affects rural livelihoods in Indonesia. Combining remote-sensing data on land conversion with four waves of the Indonesian Family Life Survey, I estimate fixed effects models to assess changes in income, labor supply, education, child health, and access to infrastructure. I find that a 1 percentage point increase in local palm oil share raises household income by 1.2%, particularly among agricultural households. However, it also results in reduced educational attainment and lower child height-for-age scores, pointing to adverse human capital effects. While electricity access improves due to private investment, sanitation access deteriorates, likely due to weak public provision. These results highlight the dual nature of plantation-led development and the need for complementary social investments to ensure inclusive growth. Together, the three chapters deepen our understanding of how different types of agricultural development can foster both economic opportunities and social risks. They demonstrate that the form and context of agricultural growth, whether through physical expansion, labor intensity, or institutional arrangements, critically shape its effects on rural welfare and political stability.

Graduation Semester

2025-08

Type of Resource

Thesis

Handle URL

https://hdl.handle.net/2142/130137

Copyright and License Information

Copyright 2025 Yoko Yamasaki

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