BayesFlow++: A Unified Framework for Amortized Bayesian Inference in Complex Systems

Kumar, Himanshu; Agrawal, Rishabh

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https://hdl.handle.net/2142/130256 Copy

Description

Title

BayesFlow++: A Unified Framework for Amortized Bayesian Inference in Complex Systems

Author(s)

• Kumar, Himanshu
• Agrawal, Rishabh

Issue Date

2025-09-17

Keyword(s)

• Bayesian methods
• Monte Carlo methods
• Machine learning
• Statistical analysis
• Data modeling
• Neural networks

Abstract

In the contemporary landscape of data science, the demand for robust and scalable inference methods has intensified, particularly when addressing complex, high-dimensional systems. Traditional Bayesian inference techniques, while theoretically rigorous, often suffer from computational limitations in the presence of intractable likelihoods or large parameter spaces. In order to overcome these obstacles, we present BayesFlow++, a sophisticated system that incorporates adaptive summary statistics learning and dynamic nested sampling into the core BayesFlow architecture. Through the use of invertible neural networks and simulation-based amortized inference, BayesFlow++ allows for quick posterior estimate across datasets without the need for retraining. By concentrating on high-posterior-probability zones, dynamic nested sampling enhances convergence and estimation accuracy while also enabling more efficient use of processing resources. Simultaneously, adaptive summary statistics learning replaces fixed data representations with task-specific, learned encodings, enhancing inference robustness across varying data distributions. Compared to current Bayesian methods, the unified framework provides better scalability, flexibility, and precision. To evaluate its effectiveness, we apply BayesFlow++ to three domains: epidemiological modeling, where it accurately estimates disease transmission dynamics; climate modeling, where it handles high-dimensional uncertainty in environmental systems; and in financial forecasting, where nonlinear dependencies are captured for analysis of probabilistic markets. In all cases, BayesFlow++ demonstrates superior performance in terms of inference accuracy and computational efficiency. This work establishes the foundation for future adaptations to streaming and real-time data settings and represents a major step toward general-purpose, scalable Bayesian inference in complicated real-world systems.

Publisher

Allerton Conference on Communication, Control, and Computing

Series/Report Name or Number

2025 61st Allerton Conference on Communication, Control, and Computing Proceedings

ISSN

2836-4503

Type of Resource

Text

Genre of Resource

Conference Paper/Presentation

Language

eng

Handle URL

https://hdl.handle.net/2142/130256&&

Copyright and License Information

Copyright 2025 is held by Himanshu Kumar and Rishabh Agrawal.

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