Essays in applied microeconomics: effects of environmental and trade policy shocks

Han, Yuqing

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https://hdl.handle.net/2142/132788 Copy

Description

Title

Essays in applied microeconomics: effects of environmental and trade policy shocks

Author(s)

Han, Yuqing

Issue Date

2025-12-02

Director of Research (if dissertation) or Advisor (if thesis)

Borgshulte, Mark

Doctoral Committee Chair(s)

Borgshulte, Mark

Committee Member(s)

• Deryugina, Tatyana
• Miller, Nolan H.
• Zou, Eric Yongchen

Department of Study

Economics

Discipline

Economics

Degree Granting Institution

University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign

Degree Name

Ph.D.

Degree Level

Dissertation

Keyword(s)

• Radiation exposure
• nuclear fallout
• mortality
• fertility
• trade tariffs

Abstract

Chapter 1 studies the long-run effects of radiation exposure from U.S. atmospheric nuclear weapon tests on mortality. Using individual-level vital records and a differences-in-differences approach, I analyze county-level radiation fallout data from tests conducted at the Nevada Test Site between 1951 and 1962 to assess the impact on mortality in the continental U.S. I find that radiation exposure significantly reduces longevity and increases mortality, with heterogeneous impacts by age. Individuals who first experienced radiation exposure before age 15 suffer an average 16-month reduction in lifespan, while those first exposed after age 60 experience a 30-month reduction. The effects are approximately linear in the level of exposure. Importantly, there is evidence of delayed effects: among individuals exposed during their teenage years, the increase in mortality becomes more apparent after age 55, corresponding to 40–50 years after the initial exposure. These findings have important implications for understanding the long-term public health consequences of nuclear events and can inform policies related to nuclear energy, nuclear weapons, and nuclear waste management. Chapter 2 studies how preconception radiation exposure affects fertility and offspring mortality. Although prenatal conditions are known to shape long-run outcomes, the role of preconception pollution exposure remains understudied. This chapter exploits quasi-random variation in radiation from U.S. nuclear weapons tests in the 1950s to identify its impact on offspring survival. Using administrative records from over 180,000 individuals born in Ohio and North Carolina between 1945 and 1971, linked with county-level fallout data, I estimate fixed effects models showing that radiation exposure during the 10 to 12 months before birth reduced survival to age 1 by 0.3 percent and to age 30 by 0.4 percent for each 1 percent increase in exposure. These estimates imply that, in high-fallout areas, about three out of every one thousand births experienced reduced longevity. Using county-year natality data, I further find that fallout exposure lowered fertility, with a 1 percent increase in annual radiation associated with roughly one fewer birth per one thousand women of reproductive age, a 0.8 percent decline relative to fertility levels in the 1950s. These findings suggest that preconception exposure to DNA-damaging pollutants can reduce fertility and increase offspring mortality, with important implications for reproductive health and occupational radiation protection. Chapter 3 studies how U.S. solar panel tariffs affected Chinese manufacturers' exports and domestic sales. Using the 2012 and 2014 U.S. anti-dumping and countervailing duties as a natural experiment, I exploit firm-level variation in tariff exposure to identify causal effects on firm behavior. The analysis employs firm-level customs data from 2009-2015 and domestic sales data from China's Annual Tax Survey of Enterprises. A 1% increase in tariffs is associated with an 18.7% decline in export value and an 11.8% decline in export quantity, while adjustments in unit prices are limited. Chinese firms appear to have partly offset these declines through increased exports to the European Union, with limited evidence of diversion to other markets. Using a difference-in-differences approach comparing U.S.-exporting firms to firms serving other markets, I provide novel evidence that firms significantly increased domestic sales following the tariffs. U.S.-exporting firms experienced 32% higher domestic sales growth compared to non-U.S.-exporting firms. These findings highlight firms' capacity to reallocate output toward the domestic market in response to external trade shocks, mitigating part of the export losses.

Graduation Semester

2025-12

Type of Resource

Thesis

Handle URL

https://hdl.handle.net/2142/132788

Copyright and License Information

Copyright © 2025 by Yuqing Han

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