Using avalanche statistics to forecast failure in models of earthquake faults and magnets

Brinkman, Braden

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https://hdl.handle.net/2142/45611 Copy

Description

Title

Using avalanche statistics to forecast failure in models of earthquake faults and magnets

Author(s)

Brinkman, Braden

Issue Date

2013-08-22T16:55:16Z

Director of Research (if dissertation) or Advisor (if thesis)

Dahmen, Karin A.

Doctoral Committee Chair(s)

Weaver, Richard L.

Committee Member(s)

• Dahmen, Karin A.
• Weissman, Michael B.
• Thaler, Jonathan J.

Department of Study

Physics

Discipline

Physics

Degree Granting Institution

University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

Degree Name

Ph.D.

Degree Level

Dissertation

Keyword(s)

• avalanches
• earthquakes
• magnets
• earthquake prediction
• correlations
• Failure
• random field Ising model

Abstract

Avalanches - bursts of activity spanning a vast range of sizes - occur in a wide variety of dynamical systems, such as magnets, granular matter, earthquake faults, neuronal networks, and of course the classic example of snow flows on mountains. By studying the statistics of avalanche sizes, we can understand the response of such systems to external driving forces, as well and their susceptibility to catastrophic failures. In this thesis, I present my work using models of avalanche statistics to study large failure avalanches. In particular, I use these avalanche models to explore statistical signals which can predict the likelihood of large earthquakes in a simple model of earthquake statistics. This analysis may also have applications to predicting seizures in neuronal networks. I also explore the eff ect that coupling has in models of disordered magnets which yield giant magnetization-reversal avalanches, which may have applications to predicting failures in power grid networks.

Graduation Semester

2013-08

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http://hdl.handle.net/2142/45611

Copyright and License Information

Copyright 2013 by Braden Anthony Wirum Brinkman. All rights reserved.

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