Multinational emission inventories for land-based nonroad engines and residential combustion

Winijkul, Ekbordin

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https://hdl.handle.net/2142/78373 Copy

Description

Title

Multinational emission inventories for land-based nonroad engines and residential combustion

Author(s)

Winijkul, Ekbordin

Issue Date

2015-04-14

Director of Research (if dissertation) or Advisor (if thesis)

Bond, Tami

Doctoral Committee Chair(s)

Bond, Tami

Committee Member(s)

• Rood, Mark J.
• Hansen, Alan
• Ouyang, Yanfeng

Department of Study

Civil and Environmental Engineering

Discipline

Environ Engr in Civil Engr

Degree Granting Institution

University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

Degree Name

Ph.D.

Degree Level

Dissertation

Keyword(s)

• Emission inventory
• Nonroad engine
• Engine population model
• Residential combustion
• Cooking stove
• Heating stove
• Stove standard

Abstract

Current and future emission projections for use in large-scale atmospheric models are necessary in determining policies or mitigation options that will be implemented to mitigate air pollution problem and climate impacts. Nonroad engines and residential combustion contribute a large fraction of total pollutants on regional and global scales. However, regional and global emission inventories for these two sectors have been previously developed based on simple calculations which do not reflect plausible causes of technology choice and evolution of technology in each region. This dissertation focuses on emissions in these two categories because the emission contributions are relatively large and the methodologies of emission inventory development can be significantly improved. Global emission inventories of nonroad engines used in agriculture, construction and mining, and industry are developed for the period between 2010 and 2050. The SPEW-Trend model, which describes vehicle fleets in term of engine types and ages, technology, retirement rates, and high emitters (“superemitters”) is used to estimate global emission. Future fuel consumption from a macroeconomic model is used to drive engine population in SPEW-Trend to ensure that emission estimation is consistent with future greenhouse gas emission scenarios. While other regional emission inventories use fleet-averaged emission factors to estimate emission, total emission in this study is calculated based on emission factors that relate to engine types, technology (emission standard), and engine age. Global emission projections of nonroad engines from 2010 to 2050 were developed under four future scenarios. Particulate matter (PM), oxides of nitrogen (NOx), and black carbon (BC) decrease while carbon monoxide (CO) and hydrocarbon (HC) increase during the projection period for all scenarios. Organic carbon (OC), however, shows an increase in emission in one, but decreases in other scenarios. In 2050, most of the fuels are used in the cleanest engines available in all regions, except in Africa where progress in emission standards is much slower than other regions. The fraction of emission from superemitters is large in all regions in 2050, for all pollutants except NOx, PM and BC in some regions. These projections are highly sensitive to emission factors and retirement rates, and changing gasoline engine population and the year at which emission standards are implemented also significantly affect emission. In the residential sector, major activities that rely on combustion are cooking and heating, and fuels ranging from traditional (wood) to modern (natural gas, or electricity) are used. Regions with high biomass consumption are included in this study: Asia, Africa, and Latin America. A distribution method was developed to apportion national-level residential fuel consumption among five land types (urban, electrified rural with forest access, electrified rural without forest access, non-electrified rural with forest access, and non-electrified rural without forest access) and four major end-uses (cooking, heating, lighting, and others). After assigning technologies in for each fuel and land-type, the method yields spatially-distributed emissions of PM, BC, OC, NOx, HC, CO, and carbon dioxide. Three emission reduction scenarios were studied – cleanest current stove, cookstove standard, and fuel switching. An assumption is used people living in forest access areas will continue to use wood, so most of the emission change in the fuel switching scenario has the greatest effect in areas without forest access. This leads to the conclusion that clean-stove scenarios are more likely to yield major emission reduction than the fuel switching scenario. Cleaner stoves preferentially affect land types with forest access, where about half of the fuel is used and fuel switching is assumed to be ineffective.

Graduation Semester

2015-5

Type of Resource

text

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Copyright and License Information

Copyright 2015 Ekbordin Winijkul

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